Unconventional is Yahoo News’ complete guide to what could be the craziest presidential convention — or conventions — in decades. Here’s what you need to know today .
1. Next stop: Indiana. Why it’s such a wild card.
So Super “Acela” Tuesday wasn’t exactly a nail-biter. Donald Trump was expected to win big in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Connecticut, and (surprise) that’s exactly what he did.
Don’t worry, though: Next Tuesday should more than make up for it.
How do we know? Because on May 3, Indiana Republicans will finally go to the polls. Fifty-seven delegates will be up for grabs — the most of any remaining state that isn’t named California. No other state will be voting that day. And Indiana isn’t just another stop on the way to Cleveland. With John Kasich agreeing to step aside — a scheme designed to give Ted Cruz a direct shot at capturing enough Indiana delegates to alter Trump’s trajectory and block him from hitting the magic 1,237 mark before the convention — the Hoosier State seems to have become the GOP battleground that, more than any other, could force a contested convention.
Raising the stakes even higher is the fact that — unlike the last six states to vote — Indiana is an honest-to-goodness tossup. Polling is scarce, in part because it’s rarely been necessary in the past and in part because it’s unusually expensive. (Indiana law prohibits automated polling, the go-to method for many low-cost pollsters, and the state doesn’t register voters by party, which makes it harder to find a representative sample of respondents.) Some of the fundamentals favor Cruz. Others favor Trump. One could make strong case for the senator from Texas. One could also make a strong case for the tinsel-haired mogul from Manhattan. But to predict a winner would, at this point, be a very risky move. It’s that close.
Here are the arguments in favor of a Cruz victory. And a Trump victory.
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz speaks to supporters at the Boone County 4-H Fairgrounds in Lebanon, Ind., on April 23, 2016. (Photo: J. Kyle Keener/Pharos-Tribune via AP)
The case for Cruz: Basically, Cruz’s people think that Indiana is a lot like Wisconsin — a state where Cruz clobbered Trump by 13 percentage points. Their plan is to take the formula that worked on the Cheeseheads and reapply it to the Hoosiers.
This plan makes some sense. Like Wisconsin, Indiana is a largely white Midwestern state with lots of rural areas (where Cruz always does well) and well-educated, white-collar suburbs that more closely resemble the Milwaukee metropolitan area (where Cruz cleaned up) than, say, Detroit or Chicago (which favored Trump).
Actually, in some ways, Indiana is even friendlier terrain for Cruz than Wisconsin. As RealClearPolitics’ Sean Trende has explained, the Hoosier State is something of a regional outlier:
During the New Deal, cities with large white ethnic populations like Erie, Cleveland, Toledo and Chicago took on a distinct class cleavage that layered a new type of politics over these states’ historic Civil War-era cleavages. In the postwar era, the influx of African-Americans to these cities added a racial dimension to their politics.
Indiana was different. It had only a slim slice of lakefront, and never developed a major industrial metropolis outside of the Hammond/Gary areas on that lakefront. It didn’t attract large numbers of European immigrants, and so it never developed a deep New Deal politics; it was one of a handful of states to vote against Franklin Roosevelt twice. It also, outside of the Gary/Hammond area, never developed a heavily racialized post-New Deal politics, at least to the extent that we saw in other major cities during the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s.
As a result, Indiana is more conservative, overall, than most of its Midwestern neighbors. It’s also more evangelical (as opposed to Catholic). That’s all good news for Cruz.
To capitalize, the Texan is again relying on his unrivaled field operation. He has repeatedly deployed his father, Rafael Cruz, to mobilize evangelicals. He has imported the “Camp Cruz” volunteers, who helped propel him to victory in Wisconsin. He has opened four offices around the state and hired a sizable paid staff.
Meanwhile, Team Cruz (and outside anti-Trump groups) is already spending heavily on ads: $4.2 million combined, compared with $963,000 for Trump. The candidate himself has been camped out in Indiana for much of the last week , while Trump has visited only once.
If the pact with Kasich works — and there are some serious impediments, including mixed messages from Kasich himself and the fact that 66,000 Hoosiers voted before the alliance was even announced — then Cruz could pick up enough votes, theoretically, to put him over the top.
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Donald Trump speaks to guests and supporters during a rally at the Indiana State Fairgrounds in Indianapolis, Ind.,on April 20, 2016. (Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)
The case for Trump: After Trump’s enormous wins Tuesday — and Cruz’s four last-place finishes — momentum will be a factor. Because the Donald’s margins were larger than the polls predicted, and because he won nearly every pledged delegate, the press will spend the next six days reinforcing his primary-night message — “I consider myself the presumptive nominee” — and questioning whether Cruz, who was mathematically eliminated from hitting 1,237 Tuesday night, is even a viable alternative. Indiana Republicans might start to agree.
But Trump has other advantages in Indiana as well; the demographics, for instance, don’t just favor Cruz. Compared to Wisconsinites, Indianans are poorer, less educated and less inclined to marry — all factors that have helped Trump in past contests.
Earlier, we noted that Indiana polls were scarce. But there have been a few in recent days — and the few there all give Trump a modest edge. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average support stands at 39.3 percent; Cruz’s hovers around 33 percent. The Kasich pact could change the math — his polling average was 19.3 percent prior to Sunday’s big announcement — but still, Trump is ahead. If he were to beat Cruz by six points next Tuesday, he would win the vast majority of Indiana’s 57 delegates.
Also, while Cruz may have the superior ground game, Trump is hardly ceding the state. He will be holding a large rally Wednesday at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum and campaigning constantly through next Tuesday. He too has opened several offices and hired paid staff. And when it comes to basketball — Indiana’s secular religion — Trump has a serious leg up on Cruz, having received the endorsement of legendary Indiana University coach Bobby Knight, who will be rallying alongside him in the coming days. Cruz, meanwhile, just botched his re-enactment of the classic pep-talk scene from “Hoosiers” by calling the hoop a “basketball ring.”
Finally, the cease-fire with Kasich may hurt Cruz as much as it helps him. For weeks, Trump has been arguing that the GOP “establishment” has “rigged” the system to keep him from winning.
Trump was wrong before: Nothing was rigged; he was just railing against the rules. But now his rivals are actually conspiring against him. That could turn some voters off.
“I’m pissed,” Tim Poe, a mechanic from Connersville, Ind., told the Indianapolis Star earlier this week. “I do think that even people who don’t like Trump are going to see how crooked this s*** is. I think it’s going to backfire. There are some guys down on the [gun] range that feel the same way.”
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2. Video: Despite big losses, Sanders’ campaign manager is still saying superdelegates “will make this election.”
After losing four of five eastern states to Hillary Clinton Tuesday, Bernie Sanders’ already slim path to winning enough delegates to clinch the nomination all but closed.
Some members of Sanders’ inner circle seemed to recognize this reality. “If we are sitting here and there’s no sort of mathematical way to do it, we will be upfront about that,” senior strategist Tad Devine told the New York Times. Sanders’ own statement on the Tuesday primaries, emailed to reporters late that night, seemed to suggest that Sanders was already shifting his focus away from the presidency and toward policy instead.
“The people in every state in this country should have the right to determine who they want as president and what the agenda of the Democratic Party should be,” Sanders said [emphasis added]. “That’s why we are in this race until the last vote is cast. That is why this campaign is going to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with as many delegates as possible to fight for a progressive party platform.”
But at least one Sanders loyalist didn’t seem to get the memo. Last night, Sanders’ campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, joined Yahoo News for an interview — and kept insisting that Sanders would try to flip superdelegates at the convention in Philadelphia.
“The truth is the superdelegates are going to pick who the nominee is,” Weaver said. “That’s clear — no one’s going to have 2,383 going into the convention with pledged delegates alone. So, the thing is set up — superdelegates are going to make this election. … If the public general election polls continue to show [that Sanders is] the strongest candidate against all the Republicans, then we are going to make the case to the superdelegates that he is the candidate that they should pick.”
Check out the clip above for more — and stay tuned as the Sanders campaign reassesses (and, hopefully, clarifies) its strategy in the days ahead.
What do you think? Should Sanders keep campaigning for the presidency? Or should he focus on influencing Clinton’s policy priorities and supporting like-minded down-ticket Democrats? Drop me a line on Twitter (@andrewromano) and let me know.
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3. Could any of these military leaders be our next president — or vice president?
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Left to right: Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Marine Gen. James Mattis, Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen and Navy Adm. William McRaven. (Photo Illustration: Yahoo News, photos: AP, J. Scott Applewhite/AP, Evan Vucci/AP, Jacquelyn Martin/AP, Evan Vucci/AP)
America has a long history of military leaders running for president without prior political experience. Some even made it all the way to the White House.
Could it happen again in 2016?
Our 12th POTUS, Zachary Taylor, commanded U.S. forces in the Mexican-American War. Ulysses S. Grant worked closely with President Abraham Lincoln to lead the Union Army to victory over the Confederacy before winning the presidency himself. Dwight D. Eisenhower played a similar role in World War II. Like Revolutionary War Gen. George Washington — America’s first commander in chief — none of these presidents ever held another elected office.
In addition, several generals have won their party’s presidential nominations, then lost the big prize: Winfield Scott in 1852, George McClellan in 1864, Winfield Scott Hancock in 1880. The most recent general to campaign for the presidency was Wesley Clark in 2004.
So what are the chances of another military leader running for — let alone winning — the White House in 2016? Slim.
Still, they’re not as slim as usual.
If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, disaffected conservatives may feel compelled to draft a candidate for a third-party bid. Trump’s advisers have also suggested that he may pick a general as his running mate to reinforce his outsider persona while shoring up his shaky national-security credentials.
On the other hand, if Trump is not the nominee, that means the convention in Cleveland will have been contested — which also means that dark-horse candidates would have had a shot for the first time since 1952 . At least one military leader — retired four-star Gen. James Mattis — is already being floated as a possible white knight.
A closer look at Mattis and three other potentially presidential (or vice-presidential) military men:
James Mattis: Known as both “Mad Dog Mattis” and “Warrior Monk,” Mattis — who last served as head of United States Central Command — is famous for two things: his impolitic remarks and his ascetic, intellectual air. Mattis’ personal library once included more than 7,000 volumes. He published required reading lists for Marines under his command. And he never goes anywhere without a copy of “Meditations” by Marcus Aurelius. At the same time, Mattis has also said things like, “ You know, it’s a hell of a hoot. It’s fun to shoot some people.” This mix of politically incorrectness and brilliance both on and off the battlefield has beguiled many conservatives — including Weekly Standard editor William Kristol — and led to calls for a third-party bid. (A group of billionaires has even tried to draft him .) As for Mattis, he says he “hasn’t given any thought” to running.
Stanley McChrystal: These days, McChrystal is most famous for being forced to resign from his post as commander in Afghanistan after he and his aides made unflattering remarks about Vice President Joe Biden and other administration officials to Rolling Stone reporter Michael Hastings. But before that episode, McChrystal — who commanded the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) for five years in the mid-2000s and personally directed special ops in Iraq —was known as one of America’s craftiest and most effective military leaders. (His forces were responsible for the death of al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.) In retirement, McChrystal has taught a leadership seminar at Yale University, served on several corporate boards and advocated for a national-service program. According to various reports, he runs 7 or 8 miles a day, eats one meal a day and sleeps four hours a night. Ultimately, McChrystal may still be too controversial to join either party’s ticket; he has also been criticized for his involvement in Abu Ghraib and the Pat Tillman cover-up.
William McRaven: A jut-jawed former Navy admiral, McRaven succeed McChrystal as JSOC commander in 2008; during his 37-year military career, he commanded at every level within the special operations community. But McRaven’s most important mission came in 2011: Operation Neptune Spear. On Jan. 29 of that year, it was McRaven who began to plan “finish options” for Osama bin Laden; on May 1, it was McRaven, linked by secure video to the White House, who got to deliver the news that bin Laden was “EKIA” — enemy killed in action. McRaven’s personal story is inspiring as well: As a 45-year-old Navy SEAL captain, he was badly injured by his own parachute after a collision with another commando during a jump exercise in San Diego. “When it opened, it split me like a nutcracker, I guess, and just kind of broke the pelvis, broke my back,“ McRaven once told Time. It took him months to recover. McRaven currently serves as chancellor of the University of Texas System and reportedly leans left. Still, in a recent op-ed , he complained that “political correctness and pressure from Capitol Hill [have] undermined command authority and good order and discipline.”
Mike Mullen: Another retired Navy admiral, Mullen served as the 17th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from Oct. 1, 2007, to Sept. 30, 2011. In that role, he led the military into a new era of tolerance toward gays and lesbians by supporting and then implementing the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”
“It is my personal belief that allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly would be the right thing to do,” Mullen said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing. “No matter how I look at the issue … I cannot escape being troubled by the fact that we have in place a policy which forces young men and women to lie about who they are in order to defend their fellow citizens. … For me, it comes down to integrity — theirs as individuals and ours as an institution.”
According to the Washington Post’s David Ignatius , “Officers who served with Mullen say he had a rare ability to unite the military and represent it to the country. His manner is low-key and cannily reserved, a bit like that of Eisenhower, another officer with the knack for managing difficult personalities.”
Also worth noting: Mullen’s mother was comedian Jimmy Durante’s assistant; his father was a Hollywood press agent. When running for president, it never hurts to have Tinseltown connections.
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4. The best of the rest
Some GOP delegates, citing threats, concerned about security for Republican National Convention in Cleveland https://t.co/MwYKG8QM3X
— Andrew J. Tobias (@AndrewJTobias)
April 26, 2016
Trump’s vigilantes take security into their own hands – bikers patrolling rallies, snatching protesters’ signs https://t.co/aBmUZawdLq
— Ben Schreckinger (@SchreckReports)
April 25, 2016
In today’s NYT: Sanders & progressive allies look beyond the primary for enduring influence in the Democratic Party. https://t.co/ScUsu9NadN
— Nick Confessore (@nickconfessore)
April 25, 2016
My scene setter on CA, which will likely decide GOP race. The upshot: Nobody has any idea what’s going to happen - https://t.co/im46JenhIC
— Eliana Johnson (@elianayjohnson)
April 26, 2016
Trump is now just two key states from the nomination. https://t.co/2cSp86fs2z
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)
April 27, 2016
Why a brokered convention means hunting delegates and learning the fine arts of groveling and goading https://t.co/6PvGkSmQdJ
— TheAtlanticPolitics (@TheAtlPolitics)
April 27, 2016
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History Lesson
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Barry Goldwater stands and raises his hand with his running mate, William Miller, at the Republican National Convention, San Francisco, Calif., July, 1964. (Photo: Hulton Archive/Getty Images)View photos
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Barry Goldwater stands and raises his hand with his running mate, William Miller, at the Republican National Convention, San Francisco, Calif., July, 1964. (Photo: Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
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A cautionary tale for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or whoever wins this year’s Republican nomination after what promises to be one of the most bizarre and bitterly divided primaries in recent memory: The only way a Republican can possibly hope to win in November is if he unifies the GOP.
Take 1964. In an obscure book called “Suite 3505” (about which we’ve previously written), legendary conservative strategist and Draft Goldwater mastermind F. Clifton White vividly recounts Barry Goldwater’s famous acceptance speech at that year’s GOP convention — in particular, the line that would come to define the senator’s career.
“I would remind you that extremism in defense of liberty is no vice,” Goldwater said from the podium. “And let me remind you also that moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.”
We here at Unconventional always thought this passage was received favorably, as a clarion call of sorts for the new GOP. But in the context of the time — when the party was badly divided after a brutal primary contest — that’s not how it sounded to Goldwater’s savviest supporters.
“In the trailer, I sat stunned as I listened to those words,” White writes. “I had not seen the speech beforehand, nor had any of the men working with me. But none of us had ever expected such a seemingly carefully calculated rebuff to the moderates and liberals within our party and to the millions we had hoped to draw to our cause.”
“Inside the Cow Palace the crowd cheered insanely,” White continues, “and I wondered if they knew they were hailing disaster and defeat.”
By Andrew Romano.
Culled from Yahoo News.
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