LAS VEGAS — Just days before the crucial Nevada caucus, David Plouffe, one of America’s top political strategists, assessed the Democratic race succinctly.
“Hillary Clinton is going through a tough time,” Plouffe told Yahoo News.
Plouffe should know. As the manager of Barack Obama’s successful 2008 campaign, he was, more than anyone else, the chief architect of the toughest time in Clinton’s career — the long, losing delegate slog that wound up propelling Obama to the presidency instead of Clinton.
Now some observers see history repeating itself, with another unlikely grassroots challenger threatening to derail Clinton’s White House dreams. The latest Nevada polls show that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has cut Clinton’s lead to 2.4 percentage points, on average, down from more than 20 percentage points late last year.
There are, however, some differences this time, according to Plouffe. For one thing, he himself isn’t advising the challenger. Plouffe, who served as a senior adviser in the Obama White House and now works for Uber, is supporting Clinton. He believes that she is more like Obama than Sanders is. He wants Clinton to attack Sanders as a middle-class tax-hiker. And he thinks he knows how Clinton is going to win the nomination — eventually.
“I’ve always believed March was going to be Hillary Clinton’s month,” Plouffe said.
What follows is an edited version of Plouffe’s conversation with Yahoo News:
Yahoo News: In 2008, Hillary beat Obama in Nevada.
David Plouffe: Yep. We won the delegates, but she won the raw vote. By six points. It was a devastating night for us.
So why isn’t she winning this time? Why is the race tightening?
I think it’s natural, especially in a caucus state. Sanders has tapped into something. He’s exceeded everyone’s expectations, probably including his own. Momentum is a powerful thing in politics. And he’s been able to generate it. Still, I think both campaigns would tell you they have less certainty about what’s going to happen here than they did in Iowa and New Hampshire. ’Cause it’s a harder thing to get a bead on.
What do you expect to happen?
It’s going to be very close. If it’s a sky-high turnout, that’s good for Sanders. Most of the new entrants … some of them will go to Hillary, but he’ll probably win more of them.
Sanders has a lot of grassroots organization. You know, we did very well up north. I think Sanders will do well in Washoe County and some of those northern counties. Clinton’s strength is here in Clark County [home of Las Vegas], and I think that’s where they’re focusing. Can they have the kind of margin against him that they had against us? It just got away from us down here. She won by more than we had anticipated.
Which voters put her over the top in 2008?
It’s union, it’s Latinos, it’s suburban women. It’s all sorts. It’s a melting pot. It’s a good test.
Whether it’s Hillary by five points or two points or Sanders by two points in Nevada, though, I don’t think that really upsets the apple cart in South Carolina. But it makes next week very important. If Clinton doesn’t win big in South Carolina … she has to do well there.
By Andrew Romano.
Culled from Yahoo News.
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